Lottery Night

Just a few quick notes before the ping-pong balls determine the draft order (the Cavs shall be represented by Dan Gilbert’s kid).

Sam Amico has an interesting column at Fox Sports where he discusses changing a franchise’s fortunes with one solid draft (he points out that this is the first time the Cavs have had two lottery picks since 1986).

I get his point (and he hammers home how Chris Grant thinks there are 12-15 good players in every draft), but I’m hesitant to even look at 1986 for a comparison to 2011. Yes, the draft was weak and yes, the Cavs drafted well early and late (Mark Price was the first pick in the second round) but the Cavs got three all-stars in that draft. That just doesn’t happen. I’d be thrilled (thrilled, I say!) if they got one all-star out of this.

Mary Schmitt Boyer seems to agree, saying there’s no player who should reduce Cavs legend Austin Carr to tears, but then mentions this:

While Carr hopes the Cavs win the lottery again, he doesn’t think the team is in the desperate straits it was in back in 2003, not with players such as Baron Davis, Anderson Varejao and Antawn Jamison returning.

Contention, baby! Can you smell the 7th seed? Whooo!!

I don’t know if there’s anything that could happen tonight that would make me literally run around my house (as I did the last time the Cavs won the lottery). Now, if they got the top 2…

Jason Lloyd of the Akron Beacon throws some math our way:

No team in history has ever held the first two picks in an NBA Draft. The Cavs can change that with tonight’s draft lottery — although the odds of pulling it off are staggering.

The Cavs have a 1.1758 percent chance of landing the top two picks, or a little better than 1 in 100, math wiz Brett Williams said. Williams is a recent Kent State graduate with a degree in Applied Mathematics and a computational concentration, as well as a minor in Computer Science.


The Cavs have two picks in tonight’s lottery after acquiring the Los Angeles Clippers’ pick in a midseason trade. They will have 227 combinations (199 for finishing with the second-worst record plus an additional 28 combinations from the Clippers’ pick). The only team with more chances will be the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have 250 combinations for finishing with the league’s worst record.

Thanks to the Clippers, the Cavs have a 22.7 percent chance of landing the top overall pick. Williams computed that by acquiring the Clippers’ pick, the Cavs increased their odds of landing in the top three from 55.8 percent to 65.8 percent. They also have a 3.74 percent chance of landing two picks in the top three and a 10 percent chance of winning two of the top five picks.

So just FYI, the Cavs have a >75% chance of not landing the number 1 overall pick. That’s the likely outcome of tonight.  Landing the top pick (and Duek’s Kyrie Iriving) would do wonders for the Cavs “rebuilding” “plan” but the odds are against this happening.

So if you want to read about prospects who aren’t Iriving, David O’Leary at Stepien Rules has previewed some draft prospects (PGs, SGs, SFs, PFs, Cs) and how they relate to the Cavaliers. Highly recommend.

Big night tonight. Definitely rockin the Cavs gear today.

*fingers crossed*

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1 Response to Lottery Night

  1. Pingback: HOLY CRAP | Ben Blog

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